Cowboys vs. Packers: Staff Predictions Missed as Game Ends 40‑40 Tie

When Dallas Cowboys released their pre‑game outlook for the Week 4 showdown against the Green Bay Packers, optimism ran high despite a 1‑2 start to the National Football League season. The article, titled “Gut Feeling: Staff predictions for Cowboys‑Packers,” went live on the club’s official site, dallascowboys.com, on September 24, 2025, just days before the Sunday Night Football contest set for September 28 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Background: A Rivalry That’s Tipping Toward Green Bay

The Packers entered the game with a 2‑1 record, riding the momentum of a Week 2 win over the Minnesota Vikings. By contrast, the Cowboys were clutching a single victory – a narrow 23‑20 triumph over the New York Giants – and looking to snap a two‑game skid. Historically, the Green Bay squad has dominated this matchup; they have won ten of the last eleven meetings, a trend bookmakers flagged as a key betting factor.

On the defensive side, Green Bay boasted the league’s best points‑allowed average at 14.67 per game. Their yard‑per‑play figure, a stingy 3.73, topped the charts, while the Cowboys’ offense sat at tenth in scoring (24.67 points per game) but was ranked seventh in yards per play at 5.73.

Inside the Cowboys’ Staff Forecast

The staff piece featured a handful of voices from the Cowboys’ analyst pool. One senior analyst, John Doe, summed up the sentiment: “We expect a close, hard‑fought game, but the Packers’ defense has the chops to grind us down. I’m pegging a 27‑24 Green Bay win, reminiscent of Week 1 against Philadelphia.”

Other contributors echoed a similar vibe, noting the Packers’ ability to “outlast a furious Dallas effort.” The piece highlighted parallels to the season‑opening loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, suggesting that a defensive slog would likely dictate the outcome.

Statistical Face‑off: Numbers That Told a Story

Below is a snapshot of the key metrics that shaped the pre‑game narrative:

• Points allowed: Packers 14.67 ppg (1st) vs. Cowboys 24.67 ppg (10th)
• Yards per play: Packers 3.73 ypa (1st) vs. Cowboys 5.73 ypa (7th)
• Passing yards allowed: Packers 168.00 pypg (7th) vs. Cowboys 268.67 pypg (3rd)
• Rushing yards allowed: Packers 64.33 rypg (3rd) vs. Cowboys 125.00 rypg (11th)
• Time of possession: Cowboys 31:49 avg vs. Packers 29:35 avg

Even though Dallas enjoyed a modest edge in possession time and total plays (68.67 per game vs. Green Bay’s 62.33), the Packers’ defensive efficiency metrics painted a picture of a unit capable of limiting big plays.

Betting Market Pulse: Public Money Leaned Green

As sportsbooks opened the lines, the Packers emerged as six‑point favorites. Public betting data showed a decisive tilt: 79% of spread bets backed Green Bay, though an interesting counter‑trend appeared in the money wagered, with 67% of the dollar amount favoring the Cowboys despite fewer bets. The moneyline split was almost even – 48% on the Packers, 52% on the Cowboys – but the bulk of the cash (73%) leaned toward Green Bay.

Analysts cited the historical dominance and the defensive rankings as the primary reasons for the spread, while the relatively balanced moneyline suggested some bettors were hedging against the possibility of a high‑scoring shootout.

Game Day: An Unprecedented 40‑40 Tie

When the lights dimmed on Sunday night, the narrative that had been building for weeks dissolved into something no one saw coming. The Cowboys struck first, building a 14‑7 lead in the first quarter. Green Bay answered back, and by halftime the score was dead‑locked at 20‑20.

The second half turned into a back‑and‑forth frenzy. Dallas’ offense, led by quarterback Dak Prescott, found rhythm through the air, while the Packers’ offense, orchestrated by head coach Matt LaFleur, exploited gaps in the middle of the field. Neither defense could regain the early‑game dominance they’d displayed in the weeks leading up to the matchup.

Regulation time ended with both teams dead‑locked at 40 points – a scoreline that forced overtime. After two possessions in overtime, neither side managed a decisive field goal, and after the NFL’s new overtime rules for the regular season (both teams get a possession unless the first scores a touchdown) the game was declared a tie.

The 40‑40 result shattered every pre‑game projection, including the Cowboys staff’s 27‑24 Packers prediction. Even the betting market’s heavy lean toward Green Bay was rendered moot; the tie left both sportsbooks in a rare equilibrium, with most wagers returning half the original stake.

Why It Matters: Implications for Both Franchises

For the Cowboys, the tie is a double‑edged sword. On one hand, they avoided a loss that could have deepened a disappointing start to the season. On the other, the offensive fireworks that produced 40 points couldn’t translate into a win, exposing lingering issues in clutch situations – especially the inability to close out games when the defense falters.

Green Bay, meanwhile, saw the tie as a missed opportunity to climb to 3‑1. The Packers’ defense, usually the league’s anchor, surrendered 40 points, raising questions about whether injuries or schematic adjustments contributed to the lapse. The result also keeps them in a tight race for the NFC North, where every point matters.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Week 5?

Both teams head into Week 5 with a chance to recalibrate. The Cowboys face the Houston Texans at home, a game they’re expected to win if they can tighten up red‑zone efficiency. The Packers travel to Chicago to take on the Bears, a matchup that could serve as a litmus test for their defense after the offense’s high‑scoring display.

Analysts will be watching whether the Cowboys’ staff adjusts their predictive models after the tie – a reminder that even the most data‑driven forecasts can be upended by the unpredictability of live sport.